By Syed Saleem Shahzad
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/KH21Df02.html

KABUL - Afghanistan's presidential and provincial elections opened on Thursday to the sound of rockets and amid fears of violence and a low turnout from the 17 million eligible voters.

There were reports of Taliban rocket attacks early in the morning, including in Kunduz in the north, Ghazni province southwest of the capital Kabul and in the southern city of Kandahar, where the Taliban are particularly active. There were also reports of a gun battle in Kabul in which two militants were shot dead by police.

The Taliban have vowed to disrupt the polls, saying that anyone who votes will be treated the same as the occupying troops. On the eve of the polls, the Taliban distributed leaflets on the outskirts of Kabul in the Shah Shaheed area, the biggest Pashtun slum in the city, telling people to stay away from voting booths. In provinces such as Ghazni and Logar, the Taliban have prevented droves of people from even registering.

Thousands of security forces have been mobilized in Kabul and the city has a ghostly air as people are staying at home, many of them clearly spooked by the twin attacks on Wednesday. In one incident, three gunmen seized control of a commercial bank and engaged in an extended firefight with police before they were killed.

On Tuesday, the Taliban launched a brazen attack on a checkpoint in the Gumrak area on the outskirts of the city. This is a particularly heavily guarded district as it is a major entry point into Kabul. By striking here, and killing seven people and injuring scores of others, the Taliban were sending a strong message that they have the capacity to strike at will wherever they want. The dead included coalition soldiers and Afghans working for the United Nations, officials in Kabul said.

Karzai has his head in front

Going into Thursday's vote, President Hamid Karzai headed the opinion polls, but it could be a close call as to whether or not he receives the 51% of the total votes cast to avoid a runoff against the second-placed candidate.

Trailing Karzai are former foreign minister Dr Abdullah Abdullah, former planning minister Ramzan Bashardost and former finance minister Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai, who hails from the largest Pashtun tribe (Ahmadzai) of Afghanistan. Preliminary results are expected Saturday.

These leading contenders are generally viewed in the international community as "respectable", as opposed to the many powerful warlords in the country. However, Karzai does have the backing of ethnic Uzbek warlord General Abdul Rashid Dostum.

Karzai also has the backing of the (political) Hezb-e-Islami Afghanistan (HIA), the largest party in Afghanistan; the Ittehad-e-Islami Afghanistan and its leader Professor Abdul Rab Rasool Sayyaf (leader of the opposition in the National Assembly); and Tajik Ismail Khan, a mujahideen hero from the western city of Herat. Abdullah has the support of the Jamiat-e-Islami Afghanistan and Ghani the backing of his tribe.

"We didn't have a choice. Hamid Karzai was the best of them all," Abdul Hadi Argundawal, the president of the Hezb-e-Islami Afghanistan, told Asia Times Online at his office in Khushal Khan Mina in Kabul.

Hadi did not reveal that while the HIA is the largest political party, it lacks resources and it has received funds from the president's office in return for support of Karzai and its condemnation of the insurgency.

Initially, the HIA had decided to abstain as it was not too keen on Karzai. This resulted in a massive crackdown throughout Afghanistan on the HIA, with hundreds of its workers arrested for allegedly siding with the insurgency. Afghan intelligence, deeply infested with former communists, took the opportunity to settle old scores against the HIA, which had been at the forefront of the fight against the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan in the 1980s. In this situation, the HIA was forced to announce its support for Karzai.

In a similar manner, former Taliban leaders have been courted by Karzai. Moulvi Arsala Rehami, who served as a minister during the Taliban's rule from 1996-2001, has a comfortable house in Kabul. The residence, guards and cars are paid for by the government.

In return, his job in the coming days is to announce a possible truce between elements of the Taliban and the government in an effort to build the trust of Afghans in democracy.

"So far we have very basic contacts with the Taliban, but I assure you that within a week the situation will take a turn," Rehami, who is now a senator, told Asia Times Online.

A dissenting voice

Not everyone thinks the elections are a good thing. Former interim Afghan prime minister Ahmad Shah Ahmadzai, who ran against Karzai in the 2005 presidential elections, is now dismissive of the process.

"Will this [election] change the situation on the ground, which is that this is not a democratic election process but a pure occupation agenda? Will this gimmick legitimize the occupation?" asked Ahmad Shah, considered one of the richest people in Afghanistan.

Ahmad Shah told Asia Times Online his participation in 2005 had been a mistake. "I will not repeat that mistake. I made it because I thought the foreigners were here for the reconstruction of Afghanistan and to build democracy in the country. But in the past seven to eight years they have only contributed to its destruction.

"Recently, I was given an audience at a NATO [North Atlantic Treaty Organization] conference in Kabul and I made it clear to General Stanley McChrystal [the top US commander in Afghanistan] that the Afghan nation sees them [foreign troops] as occupiers, not as friends," said Ahmad Shah.

An additional 30,000 US troops have been sent to Afghanistan this year, taking the size of the coalition international force above 100,000 for the first time, including 63,000 Americans.

"Even during the Soviet invasion, Soviet troops never knocked on the doors of people after dusk, but these 'friends' of ours not only raid houses in the night with sniffing dogs, they don"t even spare the women.

"They have established military jails where only Afghan Pashtuns are kept without trail and their stooges like Dr Abdullah Abdullah are announcing in their election campaigns that after the elections, they will legalize the whole process.

"Instead of re-assembling the Afghan professional army [of 1992], they are trying to recruit amateurs who are in their teens and 20s. Half the recruits flee after training. Will this ever raise an independent Afghan national army? You can judge for yourself whether this is reconstruction or the games the occupying forces play," said Ahmad Shah, an American-educated engineer who was a prominent leader in the Afghan national resistance against the Soviets and who returned to Afghanistan from Britain in 2002.

"Although I am tribally very close to Dr Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai and very impressed by his qualifications and his character, I have made it clear [to him] that I am unable to support him in these elections as they are being held under occupation," said Ahmad Shah.

These are strong sentiments, and ones which, ironically, he shares with the Taliban. The difference is, Ahmad Shah is not trying to enforce his views with guns and suicide bombers.